12.22.21
Numbers for a palindromic day
Part of keeping up with COVID-19 is keeping up with statistics. Resources abound. One of my favorites is the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Dashboard, a GIS (geographic information system that does computerized mapping) managed by ESRI, which coincidentally is where my brother Clint works. It is a pretty cool site with amazing visuals,
Not only have we surpassed 800,000 deaths, the most stunning statistic I read was that 1 out of a 100 people over the age of 65 in the US have died from COVID since the beginning. That is the population of people who are most vulnerable. Their immune systems have never met this novel (new) coronavirus, which makes them particularly vulnerable. SARS-CoV-2 is not the first virus to be more deadly when an older person is infected with it the first time. Many viruses, such as Varicella which causes Chicken Pox, can cause mild disease in kids but make an adult deathly ill. The vaccines can help, but many just don’t mount a strong immune response so they remain vulnerable.
The statistic site that really fascinates me is the COVID-19 heath data projections run by IHME (the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation from the University of Washington). It is worth looking at regularly. The site helps me see what the trends are but also what factors make a difference. Right now, IHME is projecting an increase in deaths, possibly as high 970,000 by April 1, 2022. This could go even higher if Omicron causes more severe disease than expected.
What I find eye opening is that increasing the vaccination rate or getting more people boosted doesn’t make a significant difference in deaths. Maybe 2-3 thousand lives can be saved. But if 80% of people wore masks, the number of deaths drops by 50,000. Wow, that is not what most of us are thinking. We are trying to get shots in arms. We are forgetting the power of masks.
IHME has shown masks are an effective prevention since they started publishing. Other data reinforces that masks prevent deaths. Vaccines help prevent serious infections and deaths, but masks prevents infections to begin with. That matters because the more infections, the more likely the vulnerable will be exposed. This includes elderly people and others who are immunocompromised.
Time to upgrade your masks with better fit, avoiding gaps, better yet find some KN95’s or K94’s. Encourage others to improve their masks. I still see so many who don’t cover their nose. Wear your masks to protect yourself and others.
Wash your hands, cover your nose and mind the gaps so you don’t have any, and avoid unmasked people indoors.
And finally, my caveat is that this is my experience and my opinions, which are subject to change as more information is available, and not related to the organization I work for. Thanks for reading.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.esri.com/en-us/what-is-gis/overview
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=daily-deaths&tab=trendds
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/do-mask-policies-work-countries-with-them-had-lower-covid-death-rates-study-says/
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/fact-focus-masks-help-curb-spread-of-covid-19-on-planes/
https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/vaccination-outcomes.aspx
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-americans.html
https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/do-we-need-to-remind-people-that-covid-19-is-truly-awful/2021/12/15/
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/us-covid-death-toll-hits-800000-a-year-into-vaccine-drive/
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/as-u-s-nears-800000-virus-deaths-1-of-every-100-older-americans-has-perished/
