August 1, 2021

vaccines still work

We are all wondering what now. After our respite of the past couple months, infections and hospitalizations are rapidly rising, especially in places like Florida that have relatively low rates of immunization against COVID-19. A huge shift in behaviors has increased risk of exposure. The Delta variant adds to the shifting situation and capitalizes on those behavior changes.

Most of you have also probably heard about the outbreak in Provincetown on Cape Cod in Massachusetts. Most cases were in the vaccinated. This news alarmed many, including journalists. The stories can lead one to jump to the conclusion that the vaccines don’t work, the sky is falling, and we will all get infected, vaccinated or not. That concept is causing confusion, fear, and resentment; not what any of us need right now.

Let me reassure you that the vaccines are effective and work against the Delta variant. Provincetown was the site of a unique confluence of factors-a tourist town, open for business with 1000’s of revelers, in particular gay men who came to celebrate together what felt like to them the end of the pandemic. They partied and danced unmasked, drank and ate, hugged and kissed, often in crowded bars or restaurants. Some weren’t vaccinated, although most where. Sure enough, a superspreader event occurred with the new Delta variant at the center.

The numbers of positive tests are striking, but few had symptoms with only 4 hospitalizations in vaccinated people, and no deaths. The CDC published findings in the MMWR (the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) Already, the outbreak is contained with minimal spread to other communities. The vaccines did their job to prevent serious illness and deaths. Without vaccines, the outbreak would have been worse.

This outbreak illustrates that yes, it is possible to get COVID-19 after vaccination. We must remember that the risks are still vey low. Of the 165 million Americans vaccinated, only 125,000 have tested positive so far, which is less than 0.1% of those immunized, with only 0.004% being hospitalized and 0.001% dying, mostly in older people or people with underlying conditions. Rare, but not impossible. People may still get sick and risk their life and health. Some infected risk “Long Covid”, rare but documented. Risk of breakthrough infection goes up with older age or underlying conditions that may effect immune response.

Behavior can alter your risk of exposure. Attending potential “superspreader” events in indoor venues with lots of unmasked folks may not be a wise choice. I will probably not eat at an indoor restaurant for a while and will consider wearing a KN95 or other 95 rated mask when shopping, being around others, or if I have to fly. To me, this means consider your options, check the CDC site that shows local risk. Fall back on what has worked for the past 18 months, when in an area of higher transmission and less vaccination.

We can continue to protect ourselves, even if we are vaccinated, because the Delta variant is more infectious. But we already know what works to prevent infection: mask wearing indoors, washing hands, visiting outdoors as much as possible, keeping a reasonable distance. Consider your own personal risk and those you may expose. Guiding my behavior is my goal not to be exposed, so I don’t expose anyone else.

Wash your hands, cover your nose, keep safe six, be sensible, and don’t be a superspreader.

And finally, my caveat is that this is my experience and my opinions, which are subject to change as more information is available, and not related to the organization I work for. Thanks for reading.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/01/florida-highest-coronavirus-cases-record/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/30/provincetown-covid-outbreak-vaccinated/

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_w

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1421313594063458304.html

https://www.axios.com/chart-vaccinated-americans-delta-covid-cases-b93710e3-cfc1-4248-9c33-474b00947a90.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/health/coronavirus-vaccine-refusal.htm

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/01/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine/heres-what-scientists-know-at-this-moment-about-the-delta-variantl

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/93794 symptoms of covid

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21261030v1 long covid

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/07/30/media/variant-media-coverage-white-house/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/17/delta-cases-rising/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/n95-mask-delta-variant-kn95/2021/07/23/ee849e6c-eafe-11eb-97a0-a09d10181e36_story.html

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view