August 6, 2021
Clarity leads to caution
I am hearing more and more reports of infections in vaccinated people. By now, most of us have heard about the high number of infections earlier in July from celebrations in Provincetown on Cape Cod. It turns out that not only were thousands of people in town, a rainstorm drove them, unmasked, into crowded indoor venues with poor ventilation. People thought they were safe, but the delta variant proved otherwise.
The big increase in infections in the US is driven mostly by the unvaccinated. Florida is exploding. However, cautionary tales abound about breakthrough infections amongst the vaccinated. One in particular hits close to home. In Baltimore, a gathering of vaccinated friends, who felt safe to get together and play and sing, led to almost all becoming infected. Fortunately, most have mild or moderate cases. The always excellent Katelyn Jetelina from “Your Local Epidemiologist” has a clear explanation of data regarding vaccine effectiveness towards the delta variant. She shows that effectiveness is reduced for preventing mild and moderate disease, compared to the original virus. The data also shows the vaccines still prevent hospitalizations and deaths, which is really what we hoped for. However, those risks go up as people age or are immunocompromised.
This is all very sobering. We were just starting to emerge and feel safe again. What does this do to our travel plans, our hopes for seeing friends and families, going to events we have planned for months? Basically, we each need to do our own risk assessments. What is the vaccination status of the people you will be around? How much COVID-19 is in the community? Check out this CDC map that gives county by county data. Then look at your own personal risks. How young are you? Do you have any risky health conditions or do you have vulnerable people in your life with conditions that put them at risk? Then think if you can afford to be off work or be stuck away from home if you were to get sick? I recommend doing this same risk assessment when considering any event, including eating in a restaurant. Especially beware birthday parties, which are particularly risky.
All of those answers led me to decide to stay home from the music gathering I was planning on for months. Sigh. But I feel safer for it. It doesn’t mean I will stay home and isolate until COVID-19 is done. It means I will return to the “Swiss cheese” method of prevention. Vaccination and layered protection are the best approach and work. Mask up, be outdoors or in well ventilated areas, small groups, distancing as needed.
This new surge will not be around forever. In both India and the UK, the surge dropped faster than expected. Booster shots are coming, which will help protect those most vulnerable. Hang in there and be sensible.
Wash your hands, cover your nose (I really mean it), keep safe six, and look at your risks.
And finally, my caveat is that this is my experience and my opinions, which are subject to change as more information is available, and not related to the organization I work for. Thanks for reading.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/05/provincetown-covid-outbreak/
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/05/1025248628/a-citizen-scientist-gave-the-cdc-a-head-start-in-a-covid-19-outbreak-investigati
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-covid-19-cases-hit-six-month-high-over-100000-reuters-tally-2021-08-05/
https://publichealthinsider.com/2021/08/05/three-recent-covid-19-outbreaks-and-what-the-data-says-about-how-to-prevent-a-larger-surge-in-cases/
https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/op-ed/bs-ed-op-0804-breakthrough-covid-20210803-t32trfpiwzdf5okfar45f64whi-story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/08/04/delta-variant-cancel-travel/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2021/08/05/restaurants-indoor-dining-delta-variant/ risk assessment: vaccination, covid in community, personal risk
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/should-i-mask-can-i-travel-what-about-hugs-how-delta-is-changing-advice-for-the-vaccinated/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/science/johnson-delta-vaccine-booster.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/06/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine/bikers-arrive-in-south-dakota-for-a-huge-annual-rally-despite-the-delta-variant
https://publichealthinsider.com/2021/08/03/ask-miss-rona-delta-variant/
https://www.jwatch.org/na53883/2021/08/04/how-well-does-covid-19-vaccination-protect-against-delta
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf