December 18, 2021
oh my, omicron
The days are short and the nights are long here in the Pacific Northwest this time of year. Even the light is dim, especially with the gray skies. I look forward to the return of the sun with the solstice next week. The change is gradual but the brightening will come and the days will lengthen again as the earth rotates around the sun. The approaching holidays are an antidote to the gloom. We have all hoped for the lightening of the pandemic to brighten our spirits this year. But here comes Omicron.
New variants have been expected, but this new one has some surprises, as you have probably heard. The main one is how fast it spreads, much faster than Delta. People become infectious sooner, as well. Surges are exploding in many locations, including ones already suffering from a Delta surge. Here in Washington state, the numbers are rising rapidly. Last week, 13% of samples showed Omicron, this week it rose to 40%, expected to shoot up even higher quickly. Our health department is raising the alarm, predicting 3 1/2 times the number of infections we had with the Delta wave. They are asking us to prepare and plan for the surge. Take a look at that red line in the chart below. We can expect numbers to rise even further as millions still plan to travel for the holidays.
Scientists world wide are studying the variant to understand more. The New York Times has a good article explaining the research and what we are hoping to learn. Besides transmission rates, we wondered if Omicron can get past the immunity from vaccines or prior infection. So far, the data shows Omicron can infect both un-boosted vaccinated people and people with prior infections. What we don’t yet know is if either of those things protect from serious infection or deaths. Early data shows that a third boosting dose seems to prevent infection.
We also want to know if the variant causes milder cases. We hope so, and there is promising data out of South Africa. But remember that hospitalizations and deaths lag infections, so we still must wait and see.
This variant is spreading so rapidly with increasing cases, I recommend restarting our layered approach of protection, even with boosters or prior infection. I am rethinking my recent habits, especially mask wearing. Many of us have gotten a bit lax, hanging out with friends and family without masks. It is time to upgrade to better masks, preferably N95 masks or the KN95 masks. They really do make a difference. Rapid home tests can be a useful tool, if used correctly and if you can find them. Supplies have been low.
Get a booster, if you haven’t yet. Rethink your routines. Be prepared if you get exposed or infected. Treatments are available if you are at risk. You can check your local health department or hospital.
We are back in that state of waiting and not knowing, a liminal space once again. Recognize the increase in anxiety from that state and take care of yourselves. Remember, the infections surge up now which means they will come down again.
Wash your hands, cover your nose with a better mask, get your booster, and stay sensible.
And finally, my caveat is that this is my experience and my opinions, which are subject to change as more information is available, and not related to the organization I work for. Thanks for reading.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/omicron-surge-predicted-to-peak-higher-than-delta-wave-in-king-county-its-here-and-its-moving-fast/
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/how-did-omicron-mutate-and-how-could-it-evade-antibodies-fred-hutch-scientist-trevor-bedford-answers-our-questions/
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/millions-plan-to-travel-for-christmas-new-years-even-as-omicron-spreads/
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/18/world/covid-omicron-vaccines-delta/covid-is-surging-in-the-us-but-only-a-third-of-americans-have-gotten-boosters
https://www.nytimes.com/article/testing-positive-covid-omicron-variant.html
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/COVID19/TherapeuticTreatmentLocations
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/14/science/omicron-variant-science.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/15/omicron-found-to-grow-70-times-faster-than-delta-in-bronchial-tissue
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/14/south-africa-omicron-coronavirus/
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https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/south-african-doctors-see-signs-omicron-is-milder-than-delta/
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/monica-ghandi-the-cautious-case-for-omicron-optimism.html
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/11/opinion/why-hospitalizations-are-now-a-better-indicator-of-covids-impact.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/well/mind/omicron-variant-questions.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/11/opinion/covid-vaccine-omicron-booster.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/select/shopping/best-kn95-face-masks-ncna1259013#anchor-HowtobuyKN95masks
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/what-s-the-difference-between-n95-masks-and-kn95-masks/ar-BB17WaR1
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/18/world/covid-omicron-vaccines-delta/heres-how-to-use-rapid-home-tests-once-you-find-one
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/british-studies-warn-of-omicrons-speed-and-one-notes-the-need-for-boosters/