December 29, 2021
Records are set and recommendations change. Hard to keep up with Omicron. Even the CDC can’t. As the number of cases are setting new records daily, the CDC has shortened its recommended isolation period to 5 days, confusing many of us. The Omicron variant does seem to peak faster and leave faster than prior COVID variants. But is 5 days long enough? Shortening to 5 days may be reasonable in some cases, if there are no symptoms, but others may shed virus longer. The worry is about being infectious. Ashish K. Jha has a good tweet about how 5 days is reasonable if you add in testing.
Antigen testing is used in rapid tests and checks for actual viral particles, which means that if viral RNA is found in the nose, someone is more infectious. The PCR tests amplify the RNA so may pick up early infections when the viral load may still be too low to infect others. The New York Times has an excellent explanatory article which answers many questions about testing. Their COVID articles are still free without a subscription. This one is worth reading.
But there is a shortage of tests all over. This means to me that the number of positive cases reported are a a low estimate of real cases. Long lines for testing in many cities. ER’s and hospitals full. No home tests to be found. The FDA finally approved another home COVID antigen test by Roche, which will help with access to tests. The Roche test is already in use worldwide and has a good track record. King County here in Washington just ordered 300,000 home tests to distribute, one of several government entities with similar plans. Testing can be helpful to see if someone is clear of the virus after an infection, but can be problematic early in the infection when the test may not pick up the virus if done too far in advance. Best to do a test just before your event. If negative, you aren’t shedding enough virus to be transmissible.
Watching the numbers of cases rising so quickly is unnerving. So far, at least. in vaccinated cases, illness is minor. Hopefully, that will be the way in the unvaccinated, but we don’t know yet. Hospitalizations happen a week after the infection and deaths even later. We all expect those numbers to rise, especially in the unvaccinated.
Remember that masking helps, especially if you can get a better mask. N95s are no longer in short supply, health care workers have easy access. Projectn95.org can help you find masks that are reliable. The KF94’s are made in Korea, are comfortable, and less likely to be counterfeit.
We are moving into a new phase of the pandemic where the virus becomes less virulent, at the same time we develop more immunity, either from vaccines or infections, or both. Indeed, some intriguing data shows that having an Omicron infection can protect from Delta.
Wash your hands, cover your nose with a good mask, remember ventilation is your friend, and find some home tests to use as needed.
And finally, my caveat is that this is my experience and my opinions, which are subject to change as more information is available, and not related to the organization I work for. Thanks for reading.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/29/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests/the-us-breaks-its-single-day-case-record-nearly-doubling-the-highest-numbers-from-last-winter
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/27/world/cdc-quarantine-isolation-guidelines/quarantine-5-days
https://www.nytimes.com/article/tests-covid-omicron-pcr-rapid.html
https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2021-12-24.htm
https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/at-home-covid-tests-and-omicron-what-you-need-to-know/
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-buys-300000-coronavirus-at-home-tests-amid-surge-in-cases-and-demand/
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/12/michiganders-in-rural-deep-red-counties-twice-as-likely-to-die-of-covid-data-shows.html
https://www.projectn95.org
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/covid-notes-8-special-masks-edition
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/omicron-variant-might-help-defend-against-delta-lab-study-suggests/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/27/best-masks-covid-tests-cloth-surgical-respirators
https://www.mdlinx.com/news/new-study-identifies-most-effective-face-mask-practices-to-reduce-spread-of-infection/30HoGTFlCbJ9DTI257gNby