June 24, 2021
fashion choices
It turns out bunions are not just a modern affliction caused by high heels and narrow shoes. An epidemic of bunions occurred in England in the 14th century and beyond due to the fashionable pointy shoes of the era. Many of the buried remains of the priests and friars of the church were found with bunions despite the mandate from above forbidding pointy shoes. Ah, fashion. Somehow they still found a way to wear them.
We all make choices in our lives that affect us later, despite our usual good common sense. That is how I feel about choosing mask wearing or vaccination for protection against COVID-19. The fashion of the day seems to win. Here in Seattle, we chose the fashion of masks and vaccinations which kept our rates low. Elsewhere, the fashion is to not be seen in a mask and to not get vaccinated. Those same localities where the infection and death rates were high are the same areas where the vaccination rates are low. Ah, fashion.
Already, the delta variant is spreading and increasing infections. More rapidly in areas with low vaccine uptake. Since they also are not mask wearers, the variant will be transmitted rapidly.
If you remember way back in the beginning of COVID-19, I talked about R0 (R Naught), which is the number of infections spread from an individual infected. The goal of the shutdown, social distancing, and masking was to decrease the R0 to less than 1.0, which meant only one other person was infected. This would allow the spread to slow and flatten the curve. This graphic below shows the relative R0’s of the various strains. The original R0 was 2.4-2.6. Then New York got hit with the variant from Europe with an R0 of 3. The Alpha variant came next from the UK with an R0 of 4-5. Along comes the Delta variant, first identified in the horrific outbreak in India with an R0 of 5-8! An alarming jump in infectivity, although still not as infectious as Mumps (R0 of 12) or Measles (R0 of 18). (No wonder the public health officials jump into action in a Measles outbreak!)
This jump in the R0 is worrisome. Not only does the delta variant spread more easily, it also causes more serious illness than other variants.
The delta strain is already becoming the dominant strain, some hospitals in locales with low vaccine uptake are seeing more hospitalizations. Hospitals in Missouri re-opened their COVID-19 units, that were closed a few months ago. The fast rate of vaccinations has slowed to a trickle, despite availability. We risk having more hospitalizations and deaths from this new strain, especially where people are resistant to vaccines and masks. Areas with low rates have new dangers from this more dangerous variant. The southern states, in particular, are at risk due to low vaccination rates.
For those of us protected by vaccines, new data is reassuring regarding the protection we get. So far, the mRNA vaccines work well and the Johnson and Johnson works pretty good. Other data shows that even when people who are vaccinated get infected, the cases are mild with a decreased risk of infecting others. But we still need to know about how they do with the newer variants. If you want to know more about traveling now, read this article from the New York Times.
Be sensible is the bottom line. I wish the fashion for all was to wear a mask and get vaccinated against COVID-19. We would all be safer and healthier for it.
Wash your hands, cover your nose when needed, choose the fashion of common sense and science.
And finally, my caveat is that this is my experience and my opinions, which are subject to change as more information is available, and not related to the organization I work for. Thanks for reading.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210611085617.htm
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/18/travel/delta-variant-summer-travel.html
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/the-delta-variant-is-serious-heres-why-its-on-the-rise
https://www.mdlinx.com/news/delta-covid-19-variant-greatest-threat-to-u-s-pandemic-response-fauci/2mWrwL5ivMFyIYAWbjkfZm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/delta-variant-us-cases/2021/06/23/ca715f8c-d371-11eb-9f29-e9e6c9e843c6_story.html
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/cdc-delta-variant-will-become-predominant-covid-strain/
https://www.koamnewsnow.com/spike-in-cases-prompts-freeman-covid-unit-to-reopen/
https://www.mdlinx.com/news/everything-we-know-so-far-about-the-covid-19-delta-variant/18rVXVMypcpsEsE1TEwDnJ
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/vaccine-effort-turns-into-slog-as-infectious-variant-spreads/
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/06/09/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask/southern-us-states-with-low-vaccination-rates-are-vulnerable-to-a-resurgence
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/93249
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/18/travel/delta-variant-summer-travel.html